Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending American-Russian leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is just the latest development in the president's efforts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost several years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a resolution.
Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in Alaska just as it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, Trump promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or is able to, give up the fight.