Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Decline of Open-Play Goals from Open Play
A major talking point of the EPL season so far is the decline of goals scored in open-play scenarios and the way teams are netting more from dead-ball situations instead.
Looking at scoring methods to the initial 11 matches the prior season, there have been 39 fewer scored in open-play and 26 more from set-plays and spot-kicks, resulting in 13 fewer altogether.
Considering overall statistics, shot attempts teams are taking have seen a staggering drop of 370 in open play than at this stage last time out.
Regardless of the notable jump in dead-ball scores, there have actually been just two more shots created from them outside of spot-kicks, demonstrating the proficiency sides are at devising strategies to score from set-pieces.
Goal Statistics Tell the Tale
301 total goals recorded in 110 matches so far calculates at nearly 2.75 goals per game, if this persists for all 38 games would be the least for half a decade, back in 2020-21 (2.69 average).
But just 196 scores coming in open-play translates to 1.78 per fixture and is heading to be the lowest for since 2009-10, back in 2009-10 (1.76 average).
2009-10 also marks the unique EPL campaign to see goals scored at a higher rate from set-plays excluding penalties than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 average).
What Clubs Account for This Change?
In terms of scoring from open-play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have seen the largest decline, scoring a mere four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 less than this point last season.
Apart from Wolves, the Premier League's decline in open play goals is predominantly a London phenomenon, with five out of the city's seven teams scoring a minimum of five fewer goals from open play than last season.
Honestly, this is primarily due to them scoring lots of scores at the beginning of the previous campaign instead of them really struggling to score in open play this season.
Conversely Man City have experienced the biggest increase, with almost every one of the 23 they've scored this season arriving in open play.
Set-Play Proficiency
We've compared newly promoted sides with the teams that went down they replaced. Sunderland Sunderland have scored an additional three goals in open play than the Saints did in their opening 11 matches en route to demotion last season.
When it comes to scoring from set-plays (not counting penalties), the Gunners and Chelsea have seen the biggest increase, with the two clubs compensating for the five fewer scores that they've produced in open play with the same number from dead-ball chances.
Manchester United have scored two times more scores from set-pieces as they did in the 11 games the previous campaign before their coach took charge, while the Black Cats once more are more successful at converting than the club they replaced they superseded.
City seem unaware of the memo about netting additional goals from set-plays, since they've recorded three less than the previous campaign, similar to Nottingham Forest, though that might be down to the change in style they have tried to implement.
Overall Patterns
Six teams – Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, the Magpies, Tottenham and West Ham – have been this term's top trend-setters by scoring fewer goals from open play and increased from set-pieces, while Man City represent the sole team to buck the trend to date by performing the contrary.
It remains to be seen to observe if teams persist to rely so heavily on set-plays as the campaign progresses or if they rediscover their general attacking flair and commence converting more goals in open-play too.
