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It was 60 days in the past that the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as the club went six without a win, the question was if Rogers' form were a sign or the source of the side's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. After Rogers curled home his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Serious Title Contenders?

This is a particularly tough proposition to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.

Per the data, on just two occasions has the side posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team who have strung together 10 in a row, Villa look strangely fragile – however right now the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and wait for their talisman to save the day with two crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened versus United.

His opener originated from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa have to face in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the net's top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists another reality in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.

• The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he was in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.

This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the young forward now would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial player for the national team.

This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. As the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.