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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd