Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.